Six months ago or so I had a job that required a large amount of parallel processing in Windows. The economics and technical constraints of it were such that doing it in the cloud wasn’t going to work easily. So I took to craigslist and bought 8 laptops for about $50-100 each and put Windows 10 preview on them.

These were crappy, old, low spec laptops with keyboards that mostly functioned. And here’s the thing: Win10 ran great on them. Surprisingly great. I hooked them all up to wifi and a remote disk, ran a command and they were off and computing stuff for me. Then I sold them all again, for basically what I paid for them.

Microsoft is rumored to be working on a flagship phone device, dubbed the Surface Phone.

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Begin pure speculation:

I think the Surface Phone is just going to run full Windows 10 and it’ll be an x86/64 Intel device. Here’s why:

  • Windows 10 Mobile on high end devices now feature Continuum. You plug in a display and keyboard and mouse (or bluetooth) and it becomes a pseudo-desktop computer. I say pseudo because the apps are still the pretend Office, pretend Outlook and so on. A real Win10 phone will just be a real Win10 computer. Plug in the display, and it’s a real machine, able to run the universe of windows apps.
  • Old hardware runs Win10 great, as I discovered. Phones are really just old hardware.
  • The high end Lumias can apparently accept micro-SD cards up to 2Tb. I put a 1 or 2Tb SD card in my Surface Phone and it’s a real machine.
  • It fits with the Surface being a tablet-laptop. The Surface Phone can be a phone-desktop.
  • It’ll cut the budgets for enterprise. Microsoft can go to United Airlines, or whatever, and sell them a million phones which are also desktops, cutting the device budget in half. And their IT staff will be happy, since it’s all just still Win10 machines out there.
  • It explains Win10 Mobiles lack of push, and nothing much happening in the phone space for Microsoft. I have it on a Lumia 535, which is a super low end device. It actually works pretty well but it doesn’t feel like Microsoft is super serious about it. The releases are slow and it doesn’t have a ton of polish. Maybe it’s just like WinPhone7 (based on CE) and it’s another stopgap until phones just run the full Win10.
  • It also leverages all the apps. The mobile Outlook and so on can all still run on a x64 Surface Phone.
  • It leverages all of Microsofts strengths. The other 80,000 (or whatever) people at Microsoft can all help the phone be a success if it’s running full Windows. A lot harder if it’s some bastard child requiring special care and attention.
  • Intel is rumored to be working on the Surface Phone too.
  • Because it’s a desktop machine, it’ll be plugged in most of the day. So you can sidestep a lot of power constraints of running a x64 machine all day long on battery.
  • Microsoft has bridge projects so you can port your android or iOS app to Windows. Having a phone just run full Win10 will help immeasurably in simplifying that whole idea. No porting to strange OS or processor. It’s just Windows.
  • What the hell else will they do? Win10 Mobile is going to be tough to push otherwise.
  • It fits the history and it’s just logical. DOS and Win3.1 combined to Win95. 95+NT to become Windows… Pulling in the train of WinPhone OS in to Windows makes sense.
  • Look at the Win10 tablet devices. Stick a SIM card in one and make it slightly smaller and it’s a phone.
  • It has to happen eventually, why not now?

So in short, what you’re seeing in high end Win10 Mobile devices, things like Continuum and porting Android apps over is just  dress rehearsal for phones running full Windows.

In addition to the prediction that it would be a real Win10 machine;

  • I think it’ll be a phablet. It’s the preferred form factor these days and it allows you to fit a bunch of hardware in too. Call it $699 or so and you need to add the SD card. Probably too hard to get the cost down to $499 but you never know.
  • There might be a retail SKU which includes the phone, a dock, keyboard and mouse for $999. Probably just USB for cost reasons.
  • You still want to make the phone able to make phone calls while it’s a desktop computer. This is tough because it means you can’t really use a drop-in dock. You can use a long cable but it’s messy. A dock for power, but the display, keyboard and mouse being wireless would make the most sense but may be too expensive to be viable.
    • Having a SKU for a display with the hub hardware built in would make sense. You pair your phone to the display, which has the keyboard and mouse attached. Rather than having a standard display and separate docking hardware.
  • It might make sense to make some kind of laptop-like dock for the phone, maybe completely wireless again.
  • It might make sense to short desktop hardware makers if all this happens.

Or, maybe I’m completely wrong.